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Atlético Tembetary vs General Caballero Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 18 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 22:00

Atlético Tembetary

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

General Caballero

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-17.2%0-25.7%0-33.0%0-4+1.7%1 1-06.8%1-110.8%1-28.6%1-34.6%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.2%2-26.5%2-33.4%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.6%3-14.1%3-23.3%3-31.7%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.2%4+-21.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.8% 34.5% 2.90 +12.5%

Draw 25.2% 31.3% 3.20 -11.6%

Away win 36.0% 46.5% 2.15 -22.6%

Over 2.5 59.5% 50.0% 2.00 +19.0%

Over 3.5 36.5% 29.9% 3.34 +21.9%

BTTS 61.6% 57.5% 1.74 +7.2%

Home O1.5 45.1% 36.2% 2.76 +24.5%

Away O1.5 47.4% 44.6% 2.24 +6.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 30%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -37.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.6%

A 36% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–0 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlético Tembetary1.5

General Caballero1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLÉTICO TEMBETARY · PPG 1.50

GENERAL CABALLERO · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atlético Tembetary (H) 38.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +12.5%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -11.6%

General Caballero (A) 36.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -22.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlético Tembetary face General Caballero in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlético Tembetary a 39% chance, the draw 25% and General Caballero 36%, so Atlético Tembetary are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Atlético Tembetary and 1.6 for General Caballero (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlético Tembetary are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.38 for General Caballero. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +24.5%.

Atlético Tembetary vs General Caballero Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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