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Resistencia vs Deportivo Capiata Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 13:00

Resistencia

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Capiata

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-18.7%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.0%1-112.5%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.0%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.1%3-14.3%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 42.0% 2.38 +12.6%

Draw 26.6% 32.3% 3.10 -10.5%

Away win 26.1% 38.2% 2.62 -19.0%

Over 2.5 49.9% 47.6% 2.10 +4.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.0% 3.70 +3.7%

BTTS 53.1% 55.9% 1.79 -5.0%

Home O1.5 45.1% 39.8% 2.51 +13.2%

Away O1.5 32.5% 38.3% 2.61 -15.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -21.4%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 47% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 8.3%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Resistencia1.4

Deportivo Capiata1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RESISTENCIA · PPG 1.67

DEPORTIVO CAPIATA · PPG 0.67

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.39, combined xG 2.49 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Resistencia (H) 47.3%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +12.6%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.5%

Deportivo Capiata (A) 26.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Resistencia face Deportivo Capiata in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Resistencia a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Deportivo Capiata 26%, so Resistencia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Resistencia and 1.0 for Deportivo Capiata (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Resistencia are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.67 for Deportivo Capiata. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +13.2%.

Resistencia vs Deportivo Capiata Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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