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General Caballero vs Tacuary Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 19 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 22:00

General Caballero

PPG 2.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tacuary

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+22.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-12.9%0-21.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.6%1-17.4%1-24.1%1-31.5%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.3%2-19.3%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.0%3-17.9%3-24.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-19.1%4+-25.1%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.1% 64.5% 1.55 -10.0%

Draw 20.6% 27.8% 3.60 -15.5%

Away win 21.4% 19.0% 5.25 +7.4%

Over 2.5 64.7% 52.6% 1.90 +22.9%

Over 3.5 42.6% 32.8% 3.05 +29.9%

BTTS 61.6% 53.5% 1.87 +15.2%

Home O1.5 63.4% 59.2% 1.69 +7.1%

Away O1.5 34.7% 23.0% 4.35 +50.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -21.4%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.6%

H 58% / xG 2.5-1.1 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1 7.4%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 3–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

General Caballero2.5

Tacuary1.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GENERAL CABALLERO · PPG 2.44

TACUARY · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.41 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

General Caballero (H) 58.1%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -10.0%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -15.5%

Tacuary (A) 21.4%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

General Caballero face Tacuary in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives General Caballero a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Tacuary 21%, so General Caballero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for General Caballero and 1.1 for Tacuary (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, General Caballero are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 0.89 for Tacuary. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +50.9%.

General Caballero vs Tacuary Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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