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Tacuary vs Guairena FC Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 18 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 19:30

Tacuary

PPG 0.88 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Guairena FC

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-110.7%0-26.2%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.3%1-113.1%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.9%2-18.0%2-24.6%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.8%3-13.3%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.7% 40.8% 2.45 -2.7%

Draw 27.1% 32.3% 3.10 -9.6%

Away win 33.2% 38.5% 2.60 -13.7%

Over 2.5 49.9% 48.1% 2.08 +3.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 28.7% 3.48 -0.1%

BTTS 53.1% 57.1% 1.75 -7.1%

Home O1.5 32.5% 40.3% 2.48 -19.4%

Away O1.5 34.7% 38.9% 2.57 -10.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 30%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -37.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.1%

H 40% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.2%

#3 1–0✓ 11.3%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tacuary1.2

Guairena FC1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TACUARY · PPG 0.88

GUAIRENA FC · PPG 1.12

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.06, combined xG 2.38 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tacuary (H) 39.7%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -2.7%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.6%

Guairena FC (A) 33.2%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tacuary face Guairena FC in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tacuary a 40% chance, the draw 27% and Guairena FC 33%, so Tacuary are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Tacuary and 1.2 for Guairena FC (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tacuary are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.12 for Guairena FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Tacuary vs Guairena FC Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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