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Vänersborgs IF vs Vänersborgs FK Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland · Matchday 17 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 17:30

Vänersborgs IF

PPG 0.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vänersborgs FK

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-15.8%0-25.3%0-33.2%0-4+2.2%1 1-05.2%1-19.4%1-28.6%1-35.2%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.2%2-17.6%2-27.0%2-34.2%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.3%3-14.1%3-23.8%3-32.3%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.4%4+-22.2%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.6% 35.7% 2.80 +13.7%

Draw 23.2% 26.7% 3.75 -7.8%

Away win 36.2% 47.6% 2.10 -24.0%

Over 2.5 64.1% 72.5% 1.38 -11.5%

Over 3.5 42.6% 51.3% 1.95 -16.9%

BTTS 63.3% 75.2% 1.33 -15.8%

Home O1.5 47.2% 54.1% 1.85 -12.7%

Away O1.5 50.7% 61.7% 1.62 -17.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 3.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.3%

A 36% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 0–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vänersborgs IF1.6

Vänersborgs FK1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VÄNERSBORGS IF · PPG 0.62

VÄNERSBORGS FK · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vänersborgs IF (H) 40.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +13.7%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -7.8%

Vänersborgs FK (A) 36.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -24.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vänersborgs IF face Vänersborgs FK in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vänersborgs IF a 41% chance, the draw 23% and Vänersborgs FK 36%, so Vänersborgs IF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Vänersborgs IF and 1.8 for Vänersborgs FK (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vänersborgs IF are averaging 0.62 points per game versus 0.88 for Vänersborgs FK. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.1%.

Vänersborgs IF vs Vänersborgs FK Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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