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Herrestads vs Tord Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland · Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 11:00

Herrestads

PPG 1.57 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tord

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.1%0-22.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.0%1-18.8%1-25.5%1-32.3%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.7%2-19.6%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.6%3-17.0%3-24.4%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-16.3%4+-24.0%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 52.4% 1.91 +2.6%

Draw 22.3% 27.4% 3.65 -11.2%

Away win 24.0% 30.3% 3.30 -12.5%

Over 2.5 63.4% 62.5% 1.60 +1.4%

Over 3.5 39.5% 40.0% 2.50 -1.3%

BTTS 61.8% 65.4% 1.53 -5.5%

Home O1.5 62.4% 57.8% 1.73 +8.0%

Away O1.5 35.7% 40.8% 2.45 -12.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 3.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.8%

H 54% / xG 2.2-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 3–1 7.0%

#5 2–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Herrestads2.2

Tord1.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HERRESTADS · PPG 1.57

TORD · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Herrestads (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +2.6%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -11.2%

Tord (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Herrestads face Tord in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Herrestads a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Tord 24%, so Herrestads are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Herrestads and 1.3 for Tord (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Herrestads are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.67 for Tord. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +22.7%. This match finished 3-2.

Herrestads vs Tord Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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