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Ahlafors vs Grebbestad Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland · Matchday 17 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 16:30

Ahlafors

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Grebbestad

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.9%0-23.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.9%1-19.5%1-26.6%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.8%2-19.4%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.4%3-16.1%3-24.3%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-14.7%4+-23.3%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 58.8% 1.70 -18.4%

Draw 22.6% 27.0% 3.70 -9.8%

Away win 29.4% 27.4% 3.65 +4.4%

Over 2.5 63.1% 70.9% 1.41 -11.0%

Over 3.5 40.3% 49.5% 2.02 -18.6%

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 54.6% — — —

Away O1.5 42.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 3.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.6%

H 48% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 6.8%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ahlafors2.0

Grebbestad1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AHLAFORS · PPG 1.62

GREBBESTAD · PPG 1.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ahlafors (H) 48.0%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -18.4%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -9.8%

Grebbestad (A) 29.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ahlafors face Grebbestad in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ahlafors a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Grebbestad 29%, so Ahlafors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Ahlafors and 1.4 for Grebbestad (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ahlafors are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.71 for Grebbestad.

Ahlafors vs Grebbestad Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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