Today / Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland / Ahlafors vs IF Karlstad II

Ahlafors vs IF Karlstad II Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:00

Ahlafors

PPG 1.43 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

IF Karlstad II

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-13.5%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.8%1-18.2%1-24.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.3%2-19.7%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.3%3-17.6%3-24.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-17.9%4+-24.1%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.8% 70.4% 1.42 -17.9%

Draw 21.7% 23.1% 4.33 -3.6%

Away win 20.5% 19.0% 5.25 +4.6%

Over 2.5 63.7% 69.4% 1.44 -8.3%

Over 3.5 41.7% 47.6% 2.10 -12.4%

BTTS 60.0% 61.7% 1.62 -2.8%

Home O1.5 62.4% 71.4% 1.40 -12.6%

Away O1.5 32.1% 30.8% 3.25 +4.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 3.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.0%

H 58% / xG 2.4-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.7%

#2 1–1 8.2%

#3 2–0✓ 9.3%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 3–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ahlafors2.4

IF Karlstad II1.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AHLAFORS · PPG 1.43

IF KARLSTAD II · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.32 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ahlafors (H) 57.8%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -17.9%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -3.6%

IF Karlstad II (A) 20.5%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ahlafors face IF Karlstad II in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ahlafors a 58% chance, the draw 22% and IF Karlstad II 21%, so Ahlafors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Ahlafors and 1.0 for IF Karlstad II (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ahlafors are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.00 for IF Karlstad II. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Ahlafors vs IF Karlstad II Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland Predictions