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Stenungsund vs Kumla Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland · Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 12:00

Stenungsund

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kumla

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-17.3%0-23.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.0%1-111.8%1-25.8%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.6%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.3%3-15.2%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 53.2% 1.88 -2.6%

Draw 24.4% 29.4% 3.40 -10.2%

Away win 23.8% 31.3% 3.20 -14.3%

Over 2.5 53.4% 64.1% 1.56 -16.7%

Over 3.5 31.3% 42.6% 2.35 -26.4%

BTTS 53.3% — — —

Home O1.5 47.2% — — —

Away O1.5 27.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 3.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.3%

H 52% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stenungsund1.6

Kumla1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.3%

Form & verdict PPG

STENUNGSUND · PPG 1.88

KUMLA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Stenungsund (H) 51.8%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -2.6%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.2%

Kumla (A) 23.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stenungsund face Kumla in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stenungsund a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Kumla 24%, so Stenungsund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Stenungsund and 1.0 for Kumla (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stenungsund are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.00 for Kumla.

Stenungsund vs Kumla Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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