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Nõmme United II vs Nõmme Kalju II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 23 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 16:00

Nõmme United II

PPG 1.09 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nõmme Kalju II

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.01 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-11.4%0-21.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-02.1%1-14.2%1-24.1%1-32.7%1-4+2.1%2 2-03.2%2-16.2%2-26.1%2-34.0%2-4+3.1%3 3-03.2%3-16.2%3-26.1%3-34.0%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-19.5%4+-29.3%4+-36.1%4+-4+4.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 52.9% 1.89 +0.9%

Draw 20.3% 26.3% 3.80 -13.7%

Away win 26.3% 34.5% 2.90 -14.2%

Over 2.5 75.7% 87.7% 1.14 -13.7%

Over 3.5 54.6% 69.0% 1.45 -20.8%

BTTS 69.4% 82.0% 1.22 -15.3%

Home O1.5 80.3% — — —

Away O1.5 53.8% 63.3% 1.58 -15.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob69.4%

H 53% / xG 3.0-2.0 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 6.2%

#2 3–1 6.2%

#3 2–2 6.1%

#4 3–2 6.1%

#5 1–1 4.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nõmme United II3.0

Nõmme Kalju II2.0

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.7% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NÕMME UNITED II · PPG 1.09

NÕMME KALJU II · PPG 0.70

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.01 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Nõmme United II (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.89 · IMPLIED 52.9% EV +0.9%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -13.7%

Nõmme Kalju II (A) 26.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nõmme United II face Nõmme Kalju II in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nõmme United II a 53% chance, the draw 20% and Nõmme Kalju II 26%, so Nõmme United II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Nõmme United II and 2.0 for Nõmme Kalju II (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nõmme United II are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 0.70 for Nõmme Kalju II. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.7%.

Nõmme United II vs Nõmme Kalju II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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