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Viimsi vs Tallinna Kalev Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 21 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 16:00

Viimsi

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tallinna Kalev

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.3%0-22.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-05.9%1-17.8%1-25.1%1-32.3%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.0%2-19.2%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.6%3-17.3%3-24.8%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-17.7%4+-25.1%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 75.8% 1.32 -29.1%

Draw 22.3% 20.4% 4.90 +5.6%

Away win 24.0% 17.4% 5.75 +22.8%

Over 2.5 67.0% 85.5% 1.17 -21.6%

Over 3.5 44.8% 65.8% 1.52 -31.9%

BTTS 63.5% 75.2% 1.33 -15.5%

Home O1.5 60.1% 80.6% 1.24 -25.5%

Away O1.5 43.7% 41.7% 2.40 +4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.5%

H 54% / xG 2.4-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 3–1 7.3%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Viimsi2.4

Tallinna Kalev1.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VIIMSI · PPG 1.75

TALLINNA KALEV · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.06 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Viimsi (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.32 · IMPLIED 75.8% EV -29.1%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +5.6%

Tallinna Kalev (A) 24.0%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +22.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Viimsi face Tallinna Kalev in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Viimsi a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Tallinna Kalev 24%, so Viimsi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Viimsi and 1.3 for Tallinna Kalev (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Viimsi are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.80 for Tallinna Kalev. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +31.4%.

Viimsi vs Tallinna Kalev Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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