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Elva vs Tartu Welco Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:00

Elva

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tartu Welco

PPG 2.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-15.0%0-26.3%0-35.3%0-4+6.0%1 1-02.8%1-17.1%1-28.8%1-37.4%1-4+8.4%2 2-02.0%2-14.9%2-26.2%2-35.2%2-4+5.9%3 3-00.9%3-12.3%3-22.9%3-32.4%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.1%4+-21.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.7% 28.6% 3.50 -10.2%

Draw 20.9% 26.3% 3.80 -12.3%

Away win 55.4% 58.8% 1.70 -5.8%

Over 2.5 67.4% 76.9% 1.30 -12.4%

Over 3.5 47.3% 55.6% 1.80 -14.9%

BTTS 64.3% 73.5% 1.36 -12.6%

Home O1.5 43.8% 43.9% 2.28 -0.1%

Away O1.5 65.0% 69.9% 1.43 -7.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob64.3%

A 55% / xG 1.4-2.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.8%

#2 1–1 7.1%

#3 1–3 7.4%

#4 0–2 6.3%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Elva1.4

Tartu Welco2.5

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ELVA · PPG 1.50

TARTU WELCO · PPG 2.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.11 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Elva (H) 23.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.2%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.3%

Tartu Welco (A) 55.4%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Elva face Tartu Welco in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Elva a 24% chance, the draw 21% and Tartu Welco 55%, so Tartu Welco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Elva and 2.5 for Tartu Welco (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Elva are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.18 for Tartu Welco. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Elva vs Tartu Welco Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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