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Maardu vs FC Tallinn Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:00

Maardu

PPG 1.55 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC Tallinn

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 82.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.3%0-23.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.0%1-18.9%1-26.5%1-33.2%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.2%2-19.1%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.3%3-16.3%3-24.6%3-32.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-15.2%4+-23.8%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 63.3% 1.58 -24.2%

Draw 22.6% 25.0% 4.00 -5.8%

Away win 29.4% 25.6% 3.90 +8.8%

Over 2.5 67.1% 82.6% 1.21 -18.8%

Over 3.5 43.0% 61.7% 1.62 -30.3%

BTTS 63.3% 80.0% 1.25 -20.9%

Home O1.5 59.3% — — —

Away O1.5 43.8% 49.5% 2.02 -11.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.3%

H 48% / xG 2.1-1.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 1–2 6.5%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maardu2.1

FC Tallinn1.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MAARDU · PPG 1.55

FC TALLINN · PPG 0.82

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Maardu (H) 48.0%

ODDS 1.58 · IMPLIED 63.3% EV -24.2%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.8%

FC Tallinn (A) 29.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maardu face FC Tallinn in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maardu a 48% chance, the draw 23% and FC Tallinn 29%, so Maardu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Maardu and 1.5 for FC Tallinn (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maardu are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 0.82 for FC Tallinn. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +1.2%.

Maardu vs FC Tallinn Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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