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Tallinna Kalev vs FC Tallinn Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:00

Tallinna Kalev

PPG 1.70 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

FC Tallinn

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.0% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.0%0-21.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-04.2%1-15.8%1-24.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.0%2-18.2%2-25.7%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.6%3-17.7%3-25.3%3-32.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-07.9%4+-110.9%4+-27.5%4+-33.5%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% 66.7% 1.50 -4.2%

Draw 15.9% 21.1% 4.75 -14.7%

Away win 20.1% 23.1% 4.33 -7.8%

Over 2.5 73.0% 80.0% 1.25 -8.8%

Over 3.5 47.5% 64.5% 1.55 -26.4%

BTTS 64.3% 73.5% 1.36 -12.6%

Home O1.5 71.5% 76.9% 1.30 -7.0%

Away O1.5 43.7% 49.5% 2.02 -11.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob64.3%

H 64% / xG 2.8-1.4 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 3–1 7.7%

#3 1–1✓ 5.8%

#4 2–0 6.0%

#5 2–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tallinna Kalev2.8

FC Tallinn1.4

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TALLINNA KALEV · PPG 1.70

FC TALLINN · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.45 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tallinna Kalev (H) 63.9%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -4.2%

Draw 15.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -14.7%

FC Tallinn (A) 20.1%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tallinna Kalev face FC Tallinn in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tallinna Kalev a 64% chance, the draw 16% and FC Tallinn 20%, so Tallinna Kalev are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Tallinna Kalev and 1.4 for FC Tallinn (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tallinna Kalev are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.80 for FC Tallinn. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +6.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Tallinna Kalev vs FC Tallinn Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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