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Tartu Welco vs Flora II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 16:00

Tartu Welco

PPG 2.10 · HOME

UPCOMING

Flora II

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.6% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.9%0-21.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-02.7%1-15.1%1-24.8%1-33.0%1-4+2.2%2 2-03.7%2-17.0%2-26.6%2-34.1%2-4+3.0%3 3-03.4%3-16.3%3-26.0%3-33.7%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-18.4%4+-27.9%4+-34.9%4+-4+3.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 77.5% 1.29 -33.8%

Draw 20.2% 19.2% 5.20 +3.0%

Away win 28.5% 17.2% 5.80 +39.2%

Over 2.5 71.6% 87.7% 1.14 -18.4%

Over 3.5 52.2% 68.5% 1.46 -23.8%

BTTS 69.4% 73.5% 1.36 -5.6%

Home O1.5 63.4% — — —

Away O1.5 53.8% 43.5% 2.30 +23.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob69.4%

H 51% / xG 2.7-1.9 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.0%

#2 2–2 6.6%

#3 3–1 6.3%

#4 3–2 6.0%

#5 1–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tartu Welco2.7

Flora II1.9

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TARTU WELCO · PPG 2.10

FLORA II · PPG 1.64

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tartu Welco (H) 51.3%

ODDS 1.29 · IMPLIED 77.5% EV -33.8%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +3.0%

Flora II (A) 28.5%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +39.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tartu Welco face Flora II in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tartu Welco a 51% chance, the draw 20% and Flora II 28%, so Tartu Welco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Tartu Welco and 1.9 for Flora II (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tartu Welco are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 1.64 for Flora II. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +59.0%.

Tartu Welco vs Flora II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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