Today / Estonia - Esiliiga A / Maardu vs Viimsi

Maardu vs Viimsi Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:00

Maardu

PPG 1.70 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Viimsi

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-110.7%0-29.7%0-35.8%0-4+3.9%1 1-06.1%1-110.9%1-29.9%1-35.9%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.1%2-15.6%2-25.0%2-33.0%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.0%3-11.9%3-21.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.4% 29.4% 3.40 -12.3%

Draw 21.9% 27.8% 3.60 -12.7%

Away win 54.7% 55.6% 1.80 -1.5%

Over 2.5 60.4% 76.9% 1.30 -21.5%

Over 3.5 36.8% 56.5% 1.77 -34.9%

BTTS 54.6% 75.2% 1.33 -27.4%

Home O1.5 32.1% 47.6% 2.10 -32.6%

Away O1.5 48.2% 67.6% 1.48 -28.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob54.6%

A 55% / xG 1.0-1.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2✓ 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.7%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maardu1.0

Viimsi1.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MAARDU · PPG 1.70

VIIMSI · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.78 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Maardu (H) 23.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.3%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.7%

Viimsi (A) 54.7%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maardu face Viimsi in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maardu a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Viimsi 55%, so Viimsi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Maardu and 1.8 for Viimsi (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maardu are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.75 for Viimsi. This match finished 1-2.

Maardu vs Viimsi Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Estonia - Esiliiga A Predictions