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Tallinna Kalev vs Elva Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 16:00

Tallinna Kalev

PPG 1.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

Elva

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.4%0-24.1%0-32.5%0-4+1.8%1 1-04.5%1-18.4%1-27.7%1-34.7%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.3%2-17.9%2-27.3%2-34.5%2-4+3.1%3 3-02.7%3-14.9%3-24.6%3-32.8%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.6%4+-23.3%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.7% 46.1% 2.17 -11.7%

Draw 22.6% 27.0% 3.70 -9.8%

Away win 36.7% 40.8% 2.45 -10.1%

Over 2.5 67.3% 84.7% 1.18 -20.6%

Over 3.5 43.0% 64.5% 1.55 -33.4%

BTTS 63.3% 83.3% 1.20 -24.0%

Home O1.5 54.6% 67.6% 1.48 -19.2%

Away O1.5 53.8% 64.1% 1.56 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.3%

H 41% / xG 1.9-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–1 7.9%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 3–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tallinna Kalev1.9

Elva1.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TALLINNA KALEV · PPG 1.64

ELVA · PPG 1.45

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tallinna Kalev (H) 40.7%

ODDS 2.17 · IMPLIED 46.1% EV -11.7%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -9.8%

Elva (A) 36.7%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tallinna Kalev face Elva in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tallinna Kalev a 41% chance, the draw 23% and Elva 37%, so Tallinna Kalev are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Tallinna Kalev and 1.8 for Elva (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tallinna Kalev are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.45 for Elva.

Tallinna Kalev vs Elva Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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