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Šiauliai vs Panevėžys Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Matchday 27 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 15:00

Šiauliai

PPG 0.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Panevėžys

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-17.2%0-25.0%0-32.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.1%1-111.3%1-27.9%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.3%2-18.8%2-26.2%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.3%3-14.6%3-23.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.6%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.1% — — —

Draw 23.6% — — —

Away win 33.3% — — —

Over 2.5 59.5% — — —

Over 3.5 36.5% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 45.8% — — —

Away O1.5 42.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -23.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.6%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 0–0 5.2%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Šiauliai1.6

Panevėžys1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ŠIAULIAI · PPG 0.83

PANEVĖŽYS · PPG 0.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Šiauliai (H) 43.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Panevėžys (A) 33.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Šiauliai face Panevėžys in Lithuania - A Lyga on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Šiauliai a 43% chance, the draw 24% and Panevėžys 33%, so Šiauliai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Šiauliai and 1.4 for Panevėžys (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Šiauliai are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 0.82 for Panevėžys.

Šiauliai vs Panevėžys Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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