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Leones Negros UDG vs CDS Tampico Madero Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:00

Leones Negros UDG

PPG 1.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

CDS Tampico Madero

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-19.5%0-24.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.9%1-112.8%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.4%2-18.6%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.2%3-13.9%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 43.9% 2.28 +0.3%

Draw 27.3% 30.3% 3.30 -5.9%

Away win 28.7% 32.8% 3.05 -7.5%

Over 2.5 45.5% 47.6% 2.10 -4.5%

Over 3.5 26.0% 26.3% 3.80 -0.7%

BTTS 47.7% 54.6% 1.83 -12.7%

Home O1.5 37.9% 42.6% 2.35 -10.9%

Away O1.5 25.0% 34.7% 2.88 -16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 21%

ROI 22.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.7%

H 44% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 10.4%

#3 1–0 13.9%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leones Negros UDG1.3

CDS Tampico Madero0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.5% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONES NEGROS UDG · PPG 1.27

CDS TAMPICO MADERO · PPG 1.18

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.42, combined xG 2.27 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leones Negros UDG (H) 44.0%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +0.3%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.9%

CDS Tampico Madero (A) 28.7%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leones Negros UDG face CDS Tampico Madero in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leones Negros UDG a 44% chance, the draw 27% and CDS Tampico Madero 29%, so Leones Negros UDG are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Leones Negros UDG and 0.9 for CDS Tampico Madero (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leones Negros UDG are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.18 for CDS Tampico Madero. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.4%.

Leones Negros UDG vs CDS Tampico Madero Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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