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Mineros de Zacatecas vs Venados FC Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 01:00

Mineros de Zacatecas

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Venados FC

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.0%0-22.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-05.5%1-17.4%1-25.0%1-32.2%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.7%2-19.1%2-26.1%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.5%3-17.4%3-25.0%3-32.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-18.1%4+-25.5%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 50.0% 2.00 +9.2%

Draw 22.4% 27.0% 3.70 -10.3%

Away win 23.0% 29.9% 3.35 -13.8%

Over 2.5 64.2% 62.5% 1.60 +2.7%

Over 3.5 42.6% 40.8% 2.45 +4.4%

BTTS 61.6% 67.6% 1.48 -8.8%

Home O1.5 63.1% 56.5% 1.77 +11.7%

Away O1.5 42.6% 42.0% 2.38 +1.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 13.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.6%

H 55% / xG 2.5-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 1–1 7.4%

#3 3–1 7.4%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mineros de Zacatecas2.5

Venados FC1.4

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MINEROS DE ZACATECAS · PPG 1.82

VENADOS FC · PPG 0.91

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.10 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mineros de Zacatecas (H) 54.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +9.2%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.3%

Venados FC (A) 23.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mineros de Zacatecas face Venados FC in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mineros de Zacatecas a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Venados FC 23%, so Mineros de Zacatecas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Mineros de Zacatecas and 1.4 for Venados FC (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mineros de Zacatecas are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.91 for Venados FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +23.8%.

Mineros de Zacatecas vs Venados FC Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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