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Tepatitlán vs CA La Paz Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 01:00

Tepatitlán

PPG 1.37 · HOME

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

CA La Paz

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+19.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-15.6%0-22.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.5%1-110.6%1-25.3%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.9%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.2%3-16.2%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-14.5%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 45.5% 2.20 +19.7%

Draw 24.2% 27.4% 3.65 -7.0%

Away win 21.4% 33.9% 2.95 -22.1%

Over 2.5 53.5% 56.5% 1.77 -5.3%

Over 3.5 32.3% 33.3% 3.00 -3.1%

BTTS 53.1% 61.7% 1.62 -14.0%

Home O1.5 55.4% 48.8% 2.05 +13.6%

Away O1.5 31.0% 40.8% 2.45 -24.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 18%

ROI 13.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tepatitlán1.9

CA La Paz1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TEPATITLÁN · PPG 1.37

CA LA PAZ · PPG 0.92

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tepatitlán (H) 54.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +19.7%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.0%

CA La Paz (A) 21.4%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tepatitlán face CA La Paz in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tepatitlán a 54% chance, the draw 24% and CA La Paz 21%, so Tepatitlán are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Tepatitlán and 1.0 for CA La Paz (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tepatitlán are averaging 1.37 points per game versus 0.92 for CA La Paz. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +28.7%. This match finished 0-5.

Tepatitlán vs CA La Paz Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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