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Dorados vs Mineros de Zacatecas Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura · Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 01:00

Dorados

PPG 1.31 · HOME

UPCOMING

Mineros de Zacatecas

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+11.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.3%0-23.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.8%1-111.1%1-26.3%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.6%2-19.7%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.0%3-15.7%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.7%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 32.3% 3.10 +58.4%

Draw 24.7% 29.4% 3.40 -9.6%

Away win 24.3% 45.9% 2.18 -28.2%

Over 2.5 60.4% 54.1% 1.85 +11.7%

Over 3.5 36.3% 30.8% 3.25 +18.0%

BTTS 54.6% 59.9% 1.67 -8.8%

Home O1.5 49.2% 37.7% 2.65 +30.4%

Away O1.5 35.4% 47.6% 2.10 -25.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dorados1.8

Mineros de Zacatecas1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DORADOS · PPG 1.31

MINEROS DE ZACATECAS · PPG 1.17

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dorados (H) 51.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +58.4%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.6%

Mineros de Zacatecas (A) 24.3%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -28.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dorados face Mineros de Zacatecas in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dorados a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Mineros de Zacatecas 24%, so Dorados are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Dorados and 1.1 for Mineros de Zacatecas (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dorados are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.17 for Mineros de Zacatecas. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +43.5%.

Dorados vs Mineros de Zacatecas Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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