Today / Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX / Leones Negros UDG vs Correcaminos Uat
Leones Negros UDG vs Correcaminos Uat Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX
Apertura · Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 01:00
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 58% / xG 2.7-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.5% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%
Form & verdict
LEONES NEGROS UDG · PPG 1.52
CORRECAMINOS UAT · PPG 0.99
xG gap +1.60 for Home, form 1.52 vs 0.99 - Strong consensus
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Leones Negros UDG face Correcaminos Uat in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leones Negros UDG a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Correcaminos Uat 21%, so Leones Negros UDG are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Leones Negros UDG and 1.1 for Correcaminos Uat (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leones Negros UDG are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 0.99 for Correcaminos Uat. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +36.9%.