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Tlaxcala vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura · Matchday 3 ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 22:00

Tlaxcala

PPG 1.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+10.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-13.4%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.8%1-18.1%1-24.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.3%2-19.6%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.3%3-17.6%3-24.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-17.9%4+-24.1%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.7% 63.3% 1.58 -12.0%

Draw 22.0% 26.0% 3.85 -9.2%

Away win 22.2% 17.9% 5.60 +14.6%

Over 2.5 63.4% 57.1% 1.75 +10.9%

Over 3.5 39.5% 35.7% 2.80 +10.6%

BTTS 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Home O1.5 62.4% 61.7% 1.62 +1.1%

Away O1.5 32.1% 27.8% 3.60 +15.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 56% / xG 2.4-1.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 3–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tlaxcala2.4

Alebrijes de Oaxaca1.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TLAXCALA · PPG 1.30

ALEBRIJES DE OAXACA · PPG 0.92

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.33 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tlaxcala (H) 55.7%

ODDS 1.58 · IMPLIED 63.3% EV -12.0%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -9.2%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca (A) 22.2%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tlaxcala face Alebrijes de Oaxaca in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tlaxcala a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Alebrijes de Oaxaca 22%, so Tlaxcala are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Tlaxcala and 1.0 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tlaxcala are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 0.92 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +15.6%.

Tlaxcala vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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