Today / Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX / Venados FC vs Tapatío

Venados FC vs Tapatío Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 23:00

Venados FC

PPG 2.05 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Tapatío

PPG 0.96 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-15.3%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.4%1-110.1%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.8%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.6%3-16.3%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-14.7%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 54.3% 1.84 +4.0%

Draw 22.3% 26.7% 3.75 -9.8%

Away win 21.1% 26.3% 3.80 -11.9%

Over 2.5 53.5% 57.8% 1.73 -7.4%

Over 3.5 32.3% 35.7% 2.80 -9.6%

BTTS 53.1% 61.7% 1.62 -14.0%

Home O1.5 55.4% 56.5% 1.77 -1.9%

Away O1.5 20.4% 35.1% 2.85 -25.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 18%

ROI 13.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 1–1 10.1%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Venados FC1.9

Tapatío0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

VENADOS FC · PPG 2.05

TAPATÍO · PPG 0.96

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.11 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Venados FC (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV +4.0%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.8%

Tapatío (A) 21.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Venados FC face Tapatío in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Venados FC a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Tapatío 21%, so Venados FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Venados FC and 0.8 for Tapatío (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Venados FC are averaging 2.05 points per game versus 0.96 for Tapatío. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 3-2.

Venados FC vs Tapatío Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

More Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX Predictions