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Monarcas vs Cancún Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura · Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 01:00

Monarcas

PPG 2.12 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Cancún

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.5% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-15.0%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.1%1-19.9%1-24.4%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.1%2-19.9%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.4%3-16.6%3-22.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-15.2%4+-22.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 52.6% 1.90 +7.3%

Draw 22.4% 29.0% 3.45 -13.6%

Away win 21.1% 25.6% 3.90 -10.6%

Over 2.5 53.5% 50.0% 2.00 +7.0%

Over 3.5 32.3% 28.2% 3.55 +14.7%

BTTS 53.1% 55.6% 1.80 -4.4%

Home O1.5 55.4% 50.0% 2.00 +10.8%

Away O1.5 23.9% 30.3% 3.30 -12.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 18%

ROI 13.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 56% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–0 11.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 3–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monarcas2.0

Cancún0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MONARCAS · PPG 2.12

CANCÚN · PPG 1.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.11 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Monarcas (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +7.3%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -13.6%

Cancún (A) 21.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -10.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monarcas face Cancún in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monarcas a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Cancún 21%, so Monarcas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Monarcas and 0.9 for Cancún (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monarcas are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.60 for Cancún. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +23.7%. This match finished 4-1.

Monarcas vs Cancún Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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