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FC Rostov vs Rubin Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 15:30

FC Rostov

PPG 1.13 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rubin

PPG 1.52 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-19.6%0-24.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.0%1-112.9%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.3%2-18.6%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.2%3-13.8%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 45.7% 2.19 -3.9%

Draw 28.5% 32.5% 3.08 -7.3%

Away win 27.6% 26.0% 3.84 +3.6%

Over 2.5 42.7% 38.9% 2.57 +9.7%

Over 3.5 24.3% 20.4% 4.90 +11.4%

BTTS 47.7% 47.4% 2.11 +0.7%

Home O1.5 37.9% 38.9% 2.57 -2.6%

Away O1.5 25.0% 24.4% 4.10 +1.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -8.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.7%

H 44% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 10.4%

#3 1–0 14.0%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Rostov1.3

Rubin0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 24.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FC ROSTOV · PPG 1.13

RUBIN · PPG 1.52

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.42, combined xG 2.26 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Rostov (H) 43.9%

ODDS 2.19 · IMPLIED 45.7% EV -3.9%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.08 · IMPLIED 32.5% EV -7.3%

Rubin (A) 27.6%

ODDS 3.84 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Rostov face Rubin in Russia - Premier League on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Rostov a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Rubin 28%, so FC Rostov are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for FC Rostov and 0.9 for Rubin (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Rostov are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.52 for Rubin. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.4%.

FC Rostov vs Rubin Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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