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FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 17:45

FC Krasnodar

PPG 2.28 · HOME

UPCOMING

Akhmat

PPG 0.97 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-13.9%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.2%1-18.7%1-23.4%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.6%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.1%3-17.0%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.4%4+-16.5%4+-22.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.6% 63.7% 1.57 -6.4%

Draw 23.5% 23.3% 4.30 +0.6%

Away win 16.9% 17.2% 5.80 -1.2%

Over 2.5 53.7% 57.5% 1.74 -6.6%

Over 3.5 31.8% 37.2% 2.69 -14.5%

BTTS 49.2% 56.5% 1.77 -12.9%

Home O1.5 63.0% 61.7% 1.62 +2.1%

Away O1.5 17.8% 25.8% 3.88 -18.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -8.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 60% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.4%

#2 1–1 8.7%

#3 1–0 11.2%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Krasnodar2.2

Akhmat0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FC KRASNODAR · PPG 2.28

AKHMAT · PPG 0.97

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.43 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Krasnodar (H) 59.6%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -6.4%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +0.6%

Akhmat (A) 16.9%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -1.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Krasnodar face Akhmat in Russia - Premier League on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Krasnodar a 60% chance, the draw 24% and Akhmat 17%, so FC Krasnodar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for FC Krasnodar and 0.8 for Akhmat (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Krasnodar are averaging 2.28 points per game versus 0.97 for Akhmat. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +2.1%.

FC Krasnodar vs Akhmat Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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