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Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:30

Krylia Sovetov

PPG 1.70 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Baltika

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-111.3%0-25.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.2%1-113.3%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.4%2-17.9%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.3%3-13.1%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.2% 31.6% 3.16 +36.5%

Draw 31.7% 31.4% 3.18 +0.8%

Away win 25.1% 41.0% 2.44 -23.3%

Over 2.5 41.9% 42.6% 2.35 -1.5%

Over 3.5 22.0% 23.5% 4.25 -3.9%

BTTS 48.4% 51.3% 1.95 -5.6%

Home O1.5 32.2% 31.3% 3.20 +3.0%

Away O1.5 27.7% 37.9% 2.64 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -8.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.4%

H 43% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 12.0%

#3 1–0 14.2%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Krylia Sovetov1.2

Baltika0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.9% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KRYLIA SOVETOV · PPG 1.70

BALTIKA · PPG 1.04

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.24, combined xG 2.12 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Krylia Sovetov (H) 43.2%

ODDS 3.16 · IMPLIED 31.6% EV +36.5%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 3.18 · IMPLIED 31.4% EV +0.8%

Baltika (A) 25.1%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV -23.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Krylia Sovetov face Baltika in Russia - Premier League on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Krylia Sovetov a 43% chance, the draw 32% and Baltika 25%, so Krylia Sovetov are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Krylia Sovetov and 0.9 for Baltika (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.04 for Baltika. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +27.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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