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Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 17:00

Spartak Moscow

PPG 2.22 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FC Krasnodar

PPG 2.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-15.7%0-23.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.0%1-110.4%1-26.8%1-32.9%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.5%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.5%3-15.8%3-23.8%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-14.0%4+-22.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 46.1% 2.17 +3.7%

Draw 24.3% 27.8% 3.60 -7.5%

Away win 28.0% 31.1% 3.22 -5.9%

Over 2.5 60.4% 58.1% 1.72 +3.9%

Over 3.5 36.8% 37.6% 2.66 -2.1%

BTTS 55.9% 63.7% 1.57 -12.2%

Home O1.5 53.5% 50.5% 1.98 +5.9%

Away O1.5 39.3% 39.7% 2.52 -1.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -8.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.9%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 1–2✓ 6.8%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spartak Moscow1.8

FC Krasnodar1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTAK MOSCOW · PPG 2.22

FC KRASNODAR · PPG 2.08

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Spartak Moscow (H) 47.8%

ODDS 2.17 · IMPLIED 46.1% EV +3.7%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.5%

FC Krasnodar (A) 28.0%

ODDS 3.22 · IMPLIED 31.1% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spartak Moscow face FC Krasnodar in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spartak Moscow a 48% chance, the draw 24% and FC Krasnodar 28%, so Spartak Moscow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Spartak Moscow and 1.3 for FC Krasnodar (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spartak Moscow are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 2.08 for FC Krasnodar. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Spartak Moscow vs FC Krasnodar Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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