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Alay vs Talant Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 14:30

Alay

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Talant

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-112.1%0-25.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.8%1-113.4%1-26.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.2%2-17.4%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.0%3-12.7%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.8% — — —

Draw 32.5% — — —

Away win 28.7% — — —

Over 2.5 41.5% — — —

Over 3.5 21.1% — — —

BTTS 47.7% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 23.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.7%

H 39% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 13.4%

#3 1–0 14.8%

#4 0–1 12.1%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alay1.1

Talant0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.5% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ALAY · PPG 1.50

TALANT · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.20, combined xG 2.01 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Alay (H) 38.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Talant (A) 28.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Alay face Talant in Kyrgyzstan - Premier League on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alay a 39% chance, the draw 33% and Talant 29%, so Alay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Alay and 0.9 for Talant (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alay are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.25 for Talant.

Alay vs Talant Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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