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IF Karlstad II vs Lidköping Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland · Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 14:00

IF Karlstad II

PPG 0.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lidköping

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 68.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.7%0-25.2%0-32.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.6%1-111.6%1-27.9%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-18.8%2-26.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.3%3-14.5%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.0% 45.9% 2.18 -12.8%

Draw 24.7% 29.9% 3.35 -10.3%

Away win 35.3% 37.7% 2.65 -6.5%

Over 2.5 59.5% 65.8% 1.52 -9.6%

Over 3.5 36.0% 43.5% 2.30 -17.2%

BTTS 60.3% 68.0% 1.47 -11.4%

Home O1.5 45.1% 54.1% 1.85 -16.6%

Away O1.5 42.6% 47.2% 2.12 -9.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 3.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.3%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 0–0 5.7%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IF Karlstad II1.5

Lidköping1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.0%

Form & verdict PPG

IF KARLSTAD II · PPG 0.29

LIDKÖPING · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

IF Karlstad II (H) 40.0%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -12.8%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.3%

Lidköping (A) 35.3%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

IF Karlstad II face Lidköping in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IF Karlstad II a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Lidköping 35%, so IF Karlstad II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for IF Karlstad II and 1.4 for Lidköping (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IF Karlstad II are averaging 0.29 points per game versus 1.22 for Lidköping.

IF Karlstad II vs Lidköping Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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