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Deportivo Santani vs Sportivo Carapeguá Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 13:00

Deportivo Santani

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sportivo Carapeguá

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+19.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-15.0%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.3%1-19.9%1-24.4%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-19.9%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.5%3-16.6%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-15.2%4+-22.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 60.6% 1.65 -8.6%

Draw 22.5% 28.6% 3.50 -12.8%

Away win 22.1% 22.2% 4.50 -0.3%

Over 2.5 59.5% 50.0% 2.00 +19.0%

Over 3.5 36.0% 30.5% 3.28 +18.1%

BTTS 54.5% 53.5% 1.87 +1.9%

Home O1.5 54.6% 55.2% 1.81 -1.2%

Away O1.5 23.5% 24.4% 4.10 -2.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -21.4%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.5%

H 55% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–0 11.2%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.3%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Santani2.0

Sportivo Carapeguá0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO SANTANI · PPG 1.78

SPORTIVO CARAPEGUÁ · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.11 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Santani (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -8.6%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -12.8%

Sportivo Carapeguá (A) 22.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Santani face Sportivo Carapeguá in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Santani a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Sportivo Carapeguá 22%, so Deportivo Santani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Deportivo Santani and 0.9 for Sportivo Carapeguá (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Santani are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.00 for Sportivo Carapeguá. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.0%.

Deportivo Santani vs Sportivo Carapeguá Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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