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Norrköping W vs Kristianstad W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Matchday 14 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 13:00

Norrköping W

PPG 0.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kristianstad W

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-16.0%0-23.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.1%1-110.8%1-26.4%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.7%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.9%3-15.8%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.9%4+-22.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% 36.4% 2.75 +37.5%

Draw 24.5% 31.3% 3.20 -13.0%

Away win 25.5% 44.4% 2.25 -25.6%

Over 2.5 59.5% 58.1% 1.72 +2.3%

Over 3.5 36.5% 36.4% 2.75 +0.4%

BTTS 55.9% 63.7% 1.57 -12.2%

Home O1.5 49.2% 43.5% 2.30 +13.2%

Away O1.5 35.2% 50.5% 1.98 -30.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Norrköping W1.8

Kristianstad W1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NORRKÖPING W · PPG 0.86

KRISTIANSTAD W · PPG 0.83

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Norrköping W (H) 50.0%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +37.5%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.0%

Kristianstad W (A) 25.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -25.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Norrköping W face Kristianstad W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Norrköping W a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Kristianstad W 26%, so Norrköping W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Norrköping W and 1.2 for Kristianstad W (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Norrköping W are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 0.83 for Kristianstad W. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +13.2%.

Norrköping W vs Kristianstad W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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