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Piteå W vs Häcken W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Matchday 13 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 12:00

Piteå W

PPG 1.17 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Häcken W

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-112.5%0-210.0%0-35.4%0-4+3.1%1 1-07.3%1-111.8%1-29.5%1-35.1%1-4+2.9%2 2-03.5%2-15.6%2-24.5%2-32.4%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.1%3-11.8%3-21.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.5% 14.3% 7.00 +42.9%

Draw 24.9% 21.7% 4.60 +8.7%

Away win 50.6% 75.2% 1.33 -32.7%

Over 2.5 51.5% 66.7% 1.50 -22.8%

Over 3.5 29.7% 38.2% 2.62 -13.3%

BTTS 53.1% 55.6% 1.80 -4.4%

Home O1.5 32.1% 22.2% 4.50 +44.5%

Away O1.5 48.2% 66.7% 1.50 -27.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 12.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob53.1%

A 51% / xG 0.9-1.6 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 0–1 12.5%

#3 0–2 10.0%

#4 0–0 7.8%

#5 1–2 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Piteå W0.9

Häcken W1.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PITEÅ W · PPG 1.17

HÄCKEN W · PPG 2.50

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.66 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Piteå W (H) 24.5%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +42.9%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +8.7%

Häcken W (A) 50.6%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -32.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Piteå W face Häcken W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Piteå W a 25% chance, the draw 25% and Häcken W 51%, so Häcken W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Piteå W and 1.6 for Häcken W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Piteå W are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 2.50 for Häcken W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +45.1%. This match finished 1-4.

Piteå W vs Häcken W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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