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Växjö W vs Djurgården W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Matchday 14 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 17:00

Växjö W

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Djurgården W

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 36.4% — a clear edge.

+79.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-13.5%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.8%1-18.2%1-23.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.4%2-19.6%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.2%3-17.6%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-17.8%4+-23.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.4% 36.4% 2.75 +79.8%

Draw 19.6% 29.0% 3.45 -19.4%

Away win 15.0% 46.5% 2.15 -40.6%

Over 2.5 63.1% 66.7% 1.50 -5.3%

Over 3.5 39.9% 43.9% 2.28 -9.0%

BTTS 54.5% 69.4% 1.44 -21.5%

Home O1.5 63.0% 48.8% 2.05 +29.1%

Away O1.5 25.4% 56.5% 1.77 -33.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 12.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.5%

H 65% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–1 8.2%

#4 3–0 8.2%

#5 3–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Växjö W2.4

Djurgården W0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VÄXJÖ W · PPG 1.86

DJURGÅRDEN W · PPG 0.43

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.44 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Växjö W (H) 65.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +79.8%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -19.4%

Djurgården W (A) 15.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -40.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Växjö W face Djurgården W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Växjö W a 65% chance, the draw 20% and Djurgården W 15%, so Växjö W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Växjö W and 0.9 for Djurgården W (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Växjö W are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.43 for Djurgården W. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +29.1%.

Växjö W vs Djurgården W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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