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Karonga United vs Nyasa Big Bullets Prediction— Malawi - Super League

Matchday 13 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 12:30

Karonga United

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nyasa Big Bullets

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-113.8%0-28.5%0-33.5%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.7%1-113.2%1-28.1%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.1%2-16.3%2-23.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.6%3-12.0%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.9% — — —

Draw 28.1% — — —

Away win 40.9% — — —

Over 2.5 45.9% — — —

Over 3.5 25.6% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 36.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.2%

D 28% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 11.2%

#3 0–1 13.8%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karonga United1.0

Nyasa Big Bullets1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KARONGA UNITED · PPG 1.33

NYASA BIG BULLETS · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.28, combined xG 2.19 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Karonga United (H) 30.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nyasa Big Bullets (A) 40.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Karonga United face Nyasa Big Bullets in Malawi - Super League on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karonga United a 31% chance, the draw 28% and Nyasa Big Bullets 41%, so Nyasa Big Bullets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Karonga United and 1.2 for Nyasa Big Bullets (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karonga United are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.50 for Nyasa Big Bullets.

Karonga United vs Nyasa Big Bullets Prediction— Malawi - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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