Today / Malawi - Super League / Mitundu Baptist vs Karonga United

Mitundu Baptist vs Karonga United Prediction— Malawi - Super League

Matchday 12 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 12:30

Mitundu Baptist

PPG 1.83 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Karonga United

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.32 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-14.3%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.3%1-19.1%1-23.7%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.5%3-16.9%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-16.0%4+-22.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.7% — — —

Draw 20.9% — — —

Away win 16.3% — — —

Over 2.5 60.4% — — —

Over 3.5 37.1% — — —

BTTS 53.6% — — —

Home O1.5 61.4% — — —

Away O1.5 20.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.6%

H 63% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.0%

#2 1–1 9.1%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 2–1✓ 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mitundu Baptist2.1

Karonga United0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MITUNDU BAPTIST · PPG 1.83

KARONGA UNITED · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.32 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mitundu Baptist (H) 62.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Karonga United (A) 16.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mitundu Baptist face Karonga United in Malawi - Super League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mitundu Baptist a 63% chance, the draw 21% and Karonga United 16%, so Mitundu Baptist are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Mitundu Baptist and 0.8 for Karonga United (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mitundu Baptist are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.80 for Karonga United. This match finished 2-1.

Mitundu Baptist vs Karonga United Prediction— Malawi - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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