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Red Lions vs Moyale Barracks Prediction— Malawi - Super League

Matchday 13 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 12:30

Red Lions

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Moyale Barracks

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.1%0-18.4%0-22.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.0%1-111.0%1-22.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-17.2%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.0%3-13.1%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% — — —

Draw 30.9% — — —

Away win 20.7% — — —

Over 2.5 34.2% — — —

Over 3.5 17.7% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 37.9% — — —

Away O1.5 16.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.6%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.5 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.0%

#2 0–0 16.1%

#3 2–0 13.7%

#4 1–1 11.0%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Red Lions1.3

Moyale Barracks0.5

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RED LIONS · PPG 2.33

MOYALE BARRACKS · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Red Lions (H) 48.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Moyale Barracks (A) 20.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Red Lions face Moyale Barracks in Malawi - Super League on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Red Lions a 48% chance, the draw 31% and Moyale Barracks 21%, so Red Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Red Lions and 0.5 for Moyale Barracks (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Red Lions are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.83 for Moyale Barracks.

Red Lions vs Moyale Barracks Prediction— Malawi - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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