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Nyasa Big Bullets vs Chitipa United Prediction— Malawi - Super League

Matchday 12 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 12:30

Nyasa Big Bullets

PPG 2.20 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Chitipa United

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.11 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.8%0-15.9%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.4%1-18.9%1-21.8%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.9%2-16.7%2-21.3%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-08.5%3-13.4%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-11.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.5% — — —

Draw 25.6% — — —

Away win 16.0% — — —

Over 2.5 36.3% — — —

Over 3.5 19.9% — — —

BTTS 44.9% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 11.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob44.9%

H 58% / xG 1.5-0.4 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.4%

#2 2–0✓ 16.9%

#3 0–0 14.8%

#4 1–1 8.9%

#5 3–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nyasa Big Bullets1.5

Chitipa United0.4

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NYASA BIG BULLETS · PPG 2.20

CHITIPA UNITED · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.11 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Nyasa Big Bullets (H) 58.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Chitipa United (A) 16.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nyasa Big Bullets face Chitipa United in Malawi - Super League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nyasa Big Bullets a 59% chance, the draw 26% and Chitipa United 16%, so Nyasa Big Bullets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Nyasa Big Bullets and 0.4 for Chitipa United (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nyasa Big Bullets are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.60 for Chitipa United. This match finished 2-0.

Nyasa Big Bullets vs Chitipa United Prediction— Malawi - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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