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Chitipa United vs Mitundu Baptist Prediction— Malawi - Super League

Matchday 13 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 12:30

Chitipa United

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Mitundu Baptist

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.5%0-112.0%0-24.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.8%1-112.9%1-24.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.6%2-16.9%2-22.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.4%3-12.5%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% — — —

Draw 32.5% — — —

Away win 23.2% — — —

Over 2.5 34.2% — — —

Over 3.5 17.7% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.6%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.5%

#2 1–0 17.8%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 0–1 12.0%

#5 2–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chitipa United1.1

Mitundu Baptist0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CHITIPA UNITED · PPG 2.17

MITUNDU BAPTIST · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.35, combined xG 1.80 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chitipa United (H) 44.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mitundu Baptist (A) 23.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Chitipa United face Mitundu Baptist in Malawi - Super League on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chitipa United a 44% chance, the draw 33% and Mitundu Baptist 23%, so Chitipa United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Chitipa United and 0.7 for Mitundu Baptist (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chitipa United are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.80 for Mitundu Baptist.

Chitipa United vs Mitundu Baptist Prediction— Malawi - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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