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Central Coast II vs Hurstville FC Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Matchday 28 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 05:00

Central Coast II

PPG 0.85 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hurstville FC

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-15.2%0-24.7%0-32.8%0-4+1.9%1 1-05.1%1-19.1%1-28.1%1-34.9%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.4%2-17.9%2-27.1%2-34.3%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.6%3-14.6%3-24.1%3-32.5%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-13.0%4+-22.7%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 41.4% — — —

Over 2.5 64.4% — — —

Over 3.5 42.6% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 47.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.3%

A 41% / xG 1.7-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 1–3 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Central Coast II1.7

Hurstville FC1.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CENTRAL COAST II · PPG 0.85

HURSTVILLE FC · PPG 0.92

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Central Coast II (H) 36.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Hurstville FC (A) 41.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Central Coast II face Hurstville FC in Australia - New South Wales NPL 2 on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Central Coast II a 36% chance, the draw 23% and Hurstville FC 41%, so Hurstville FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Central Coast II and 1.8 for Hurstville FC (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Central Coast II are averaging 0.85 points per game versus 0.92 for Hurstville FC.

Central Coast II vs Hurstville FC Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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