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Macarthur Rams vs Blacktown Spartans Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Matchday 28 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 06:30

Macarthur Rams

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Blacktown Spartans

PPG 1.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-19.8%0-27.9%0-34.3%0-4+2.5%1 1-07.2%1-111.6%1-29.4%1-35.1%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.2%2-16.9%2-25.6%2-33.0%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.7%3-12.7%3-22.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.7% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 44.9% — — —

Over 2.5 57.3% — — —

Over 3.5 34.2% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 31.7% — — —

Away O1.5 47.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.6%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 9.8%

#4 0–2 7.9%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Macarthur Rams1.2

Blacktown Spartans1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MACARTHUR RAMS · PPG 1.43

BLACKTOWN SPARTANS · PPG 1.92

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Macarthur Rams (H) 30.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Blacktown Spartans (A) 44.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Macarthur Rams face Blacktown Spartans in Australia - New South Wales NPL 2 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Macarthur Rams a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Blacktown Spartans 45%, so Blacktown Spartans are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Macarthur Rams and 1.6 for Blacktown Spartans (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Macarthur Rams are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.92 for Blacktown Spartans.

Macarthur Rams vs Blacktown Spartans Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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