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Guabirá vs The Strongest Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 21:15

Guabirá

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

The Strongest

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.8%0-24.8%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.8%1-111.9%1-27.3%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.1%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.8%3-14.6%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 45.5% 2.20 +4.7%

Draw 24.3% 26.7% 3.75 -5.3%

Away win 28.1% 38.2% 2.62 -15.8%

Over 2.5 53.7% 67.6% 1.48 -20.5%

Over 3.5 31.8% 45.5% 2.20 -30.0%

BTTS 54.5% 70.4% 1.42 -22.6%

Home O1.5 45.1% 55.6% 1.80 -18.8%

Away O1.5 36.6% 51.3% 1.95 -28.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.5%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.4%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guabirá1.5

The Strongest1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GUABIRÁ · PPG 2.17

THE STRONGEST · PPG 2.14

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Guabirá (H) 47.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +4.7%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -5.3%

The Strongest (A) 28.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guabirá face The Strongest in Bolivia - Primera División on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guabirá a 48% chance, the draw 24% and The Strongest 28%, so Guabirá are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Guabirá and 1.2 for The Strongest (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guabirá are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 2.14 for The Strongest.

Guabirá vs The Strongest Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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