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Athletic Club MG U20 vs Social U20 Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro U20

Winners Stage · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 18:00

Athletic Club MG U20

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Social U20

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.57 for Home, form 1.43 vs 0.43 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-13.5%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.7%1-18.1%1-23.0%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.4%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.6%3-17.3%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.7%4+-17.3%4+-22.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.3% — — —

Draw 20.0% — — —

Away win 14.7% — — —

Over 2.5 59.8% — — —

Over 3.5 36.5% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 63.0% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 65% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.4%

#2 3–0 9.6%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 1–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletic Club MG U202.3

Social U200.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETIC CLUB MG U20 · PPG 1.43

SOCIAL U20 · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.57 for Home, form 1.43 vs 0.43 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Athletic Club MG U20 (H) 65.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Social U20 (A) 14.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletic Club MG U20 face Social U20 in Brazil - Mineiro U20 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletic Club MG U20 a 65% chance, the draw 20% and Social U20 15%, so Athletic Club MG U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Athletic Club MG U20 and 0.8 for Social U20 (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletic Club MG U20 are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.43 for Social U20.

Athletic Club MG U20 vs Social U20 Prediction— Brazil - Mineiro U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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