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WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 1 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 15:00

WSG Wattens

PPG 1.58 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sturm Graz

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-18.9%0-26.6%0-33.3%0-4+1.7%1 1-08.0%1-111.8%1-28.8%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.3%2-17.9%2-25.8%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.3%3-13.5%3-22.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 26.7% 3.75 +41.8%

Draw 25.4% 27.4% 3.65 -4.4%

Away win 36.8% 52.6% 1.90 -30.1%

Over 2.5 53.4% 57.1% 1.75 -6.6%

Over 3.5 32.3% 35.7% 2.80 -9.6%

BTTS 58.3% 61.7% 1.62 -5.5%

Home O1.5 38.3% 35.7% 2.80 +7.2%

Away O1.5 47.6% 55.6% 1.80 -14.3%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.3%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 0–0 6.0%

#5 0–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

WSG Wattens1.3

Sturm Graz1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WSG WATTENS · PPG 1.58

STURM GRAZ · PPG 1.86

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

WSG Wattens (H) 37.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +41.8%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -4.4%

Sturm Graz (A) 36.8%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -30.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

WSG Wattens face Sturm Graz in Austria - Bundesliga on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives WSG Wattens a 38% chance, the draw 25% and Sturm Graz 37%, so WSG Wattens are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for WSG Wattens and 1.5 for Sturm Graz (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, WSG Wattens are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.86 for Sturm Graz. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +26.8%.

WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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