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Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 1 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 17:30

Red Bull Salzburg

PPG 1.42 · HOME

UPCOMING

TSV Hartberg

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-17.6%0-24.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.5%1-111.9%1-26.8%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.3%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.3%3-14.9%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 76.9% 1.30 -36.8%

Draw 24.4% 19.6% 5.10 +14.7%

Away win 26.9% 11.1% 9.00 +85.3%

Over 2.5 53.4% 66.7% 1.50 -19.9%

Over 3.5 32.2% 44.4% 2.25 -27.6%

BTTS 55.4% 57.1% 1.75 -3.0%

Home O1.5 46.9% 74.1% 1.35 -36.7%

Away O1.5 36.5% 23.1% 4.33 +58.0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 0–0 6.7%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Red Bull Salzburg1.6

TSV Hartberg1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RED BULL SALZBURG · PPG 1.42

TSV HARTBERG · PPG 1.54

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.43 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Red Bull Salzburg (H) 48.6%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -36.8%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +14.7%

TSV Hartberg (A) 26.9%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +85.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Red Bull Salzburg face TSV Hartberg in Austria - Bundesliga on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 49% chance, the draw 24% and TSV Hartberg 27%, so Red Bull Salzburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.1 for TSV Hartberg (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.54 for TSV Hartberg. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +74.0%.

Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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