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Warta Sieradz vs Jagiellonia II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Group I · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 16:00

Warta Sieradz

PPG 1.65 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jagiellonia II

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.3%0-24.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.0%1-111.7%1-26.9%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.4%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.2%3-15.0%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.8%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% — — —

Draw 26.6% — — —

Away win 28.9% — — —

Over 2.5 51.3% — — —

Over 3.5 30.8% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 47.2% — — —

Away O1.5 34.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.1%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.0%

#4 0–0 6.2%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Warta Sieradz1.6

Jagiellonia II1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

WARTA SIERADZ · PPG 1.65

JAGIELLONIA II · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Warta Sieradz (H) 44.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Jagiellonia II (A) 28.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Warta Sieradz face Jagiellonia II in Poland - III Liga - Group 1 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Warta Sieradz a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Jagiellonia II 29%, so Warta Sieradz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Warta Sieradz and 1.2 for Jagiellonia II (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Warta Sieradz are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.83 for Jagiellonia II.

Warta Sieradz vs Jagiellonia II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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