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Jagiellonia II vs Wigry Suwałki Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Group I · Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 15:00

Jagiellonia II

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Wigry Suwałki

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-16.5%0-25.3%0-32.9%0-4+1.7%1 1-06.3%1-110.3%1-28.5%1-34.6%1-4+2.8%2 2-05.0%2-18.2%2-26.7%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.6%3-14.3%3-23.6%3-32.0%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.5%4+-22.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 35.2% — — —

Over 2.5 63.4% — — —

Over 3.5 39.5% — — —

BTTS 62.9% — — —

Home O1.5 47.5% — — —

Away O1.5 48.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 100%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.9%

A 35% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–0 3.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jagiellonia II1.6

Wigry Suwałki1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

JAGIELLONIA II · PPG 1.33

WIGRY SUWAŁKI · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jagiellonia II (H) 40.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Wigry Suwałki (A) 35.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Jagiellonia II face Wigry Suwałki in Poland - III Liga - Group 1 on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jagiellonia II a 40% chance, the draw 24% and Wigry Suwałki 35%, so Jagiellonia II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Jagiellonia II and 1.6 for Wigry Suwałki (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jagiellonia II are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.56 for Wigry Suwałki.

Jagiellonia II vs Wigry Suwałki Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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