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Warta Sieradz vs Mławianka Mława Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Group I - 1 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 16:00

Warta Sieradz

PPG 1.98 · HOME

UPCOMING

Mławianka Mława

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.4%0-22.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.0%1-19.3%1-25.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.4%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.9%3-16.9%3-24.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-15.9%4+-23.4%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 64.9% 1.54 -16.2%

Draw 22.2% 21.5% 4.65 +1.9%

Away win 23.4% 22.0% 4.55 +3.9%

Over 2.5 63.6% 64.9% 1.54 -2.1%

Over 3.5 40.3% 42.2% 2.37 -4.5%

BTTS 62.1% 60.2% 1.66 +3.1%

Home O1.5 60.1% 65.8% 1.52 -8.6%

Away O1.5 36.5% 32.3% 3.10 +13.2%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.1%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 3–1 6.9%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Warta Sieradz2.1

Mławianka Mława1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WARTA SIERADZ · PPG 1.98

MŁAWIANKA MŁAWA · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Warta Sieradz (H) 54.4%

ODDS 1.54 · IMPLIED 64.9% EV -16.2%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +1.9%

Mławianka Mława (A) 23.4%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Warta Sieradz face Mławianka Mława in Poland - III Liga - Group 1 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Warta Sieradz a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Mławianka Mława 23%, so Warta Sieradz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Warta Sieradz and 1.2 for Mławianka Mława (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Warta Sieradz are averaging 1.98 points per game versus 1.25 for Mławianka Mława. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.4%.

Warta Sieradz vs Mławianka Mława Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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